Call for Expression of Interest (EOI) – Baseline Study for the Global Affairs Canada Funded Integrated El-Nino Drought Response Intervention in Zambia

Baseline Study for the Global Affairs Canada Funded Integrated El-Nino Drought Response Intervention in Zambia.

Call for Expression of Interest (EOI)

Background:

The worst mid-season dry spell in over 100 years, marred by the lowest mid-season rainfall in 40 years, exacerbated by an El Niño phenomenon, severely impacted the crisis-hit population in Southern Africa. Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique are the countries most affected by the drought, with three of them declaring national disasters due to the resulting food, water and protection needs. According to government, UN, IFRC, and SADC appeals an estimated 9.9M urgently need lifesaving humanitarian assistance, however the appeals for the country are less than 60% funded. The coverage of existing efforts is insufficient, leaving unprecedented, vast unmet need, including in the targeted regions Districts of Gwembe, Namwala and Sinazongwe District, Southern Province, and Kalabo, Kaoma and Mongu Districts, Western Province in Zambia, where Oxfam are present through partners. Oxfam’s experiences and assessments in these locations highlight the eroded coping capacity of affected communities, particularly around access to food and water. This has resulted in significant protection risks for communities already grappling with the compounded effects of recent cyclones, flooding and disease outbreaks including cholera.

With over 80% of smallholder farmers relying on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods in the regions, there has been a severe impact on food security, with a total of 6.6million across the country, in urgent need of food assistance. The drought led to significant and in some places total harvest failure, declining food security and widespread IPC 3 & 4 at household level in the target areas. The Zambia IPC report found 29% of the population are in IPC Phase 3+ with 84,000 people facing IPC 4. In Western Province, 15 of the 16 districts were already in IPC 4, with malnutrition levels set to increase. The expected significant deterioration in the proposed target districts means the risk of famine loomed large.

In targeted areas, Oxfam and partners saw increased reliance on negative coping strategies. In Zambia, the March 2024 Joint RNA, which Oxfam engaged in, found that 75.7% households (HH) borrowed food from friends and relatives; 79.6 % HH reduced food portions, and 77.2 % HH reduced consumption by adults, prioritizing children. Participants in Oxfam’s Real Time Evaluation in September 2024 revealed they were mostly eating only once a day.

Significant food price rises in the drought-affected target areas made it difficult for families to afford basic items, worsening malnutrition rates, particularly among children under five, chronically ill patients, the elderly, pregnant women, and lactating mothers. For example, in Zambia, food prices increased 13% in July. This pushed vulnerable households to take more extreme coping mechanisms.  61.6% of female-headed households had food consumption deficits compared to 51.7% of all households and 46.7% of male headed households. Women were particularly affected, as they are often deprioritized in household food consumption and may compromise their health and nutrition by skipping or reducing meals to ensure their husband and children can eat. Furthermore, women have low levels of involvement in decision-making around money, as found in Oxfam’s June 2024 Gender Analysis in Zimbabwe.

 

Malnutrition and wasting are increasing across the targeted areas. Oxfam’s Needs Assessment and Gender Analysis also found that female-headed households, elderly women, disabled people and people living in polygamous households are particularly vulnerable to malnutrition. Nearly 52,000 under five children in Zambia’s 84 drought-affected districts were at risk of severe wasting.

El Niño has significantly increased water insecurity, exposing 2.8 million people in Zambia, to related health and protection risks and a dire need for WASH services. Widespread drying-up of water points, and the urgent need for water point servicing, has left communities grappling with dire shortages of clean water. In Zambia, Oxfam participated in the 2024 Food Security Cluster Joint Rapid Assessment, which found 31.1 % of surveyed individuals, including in our target areas, reported changing their main water source due to water scarcity.

Across all districts, women and children face increased WASH-related protection risks, because of being forced to travel longer distances to find water. Women and girls’ often have the socially ascribed gender roles and responsibilities to collect, provide for water. In rural areas, the typical 2km walk to collect water from available sources is currently 5km (2 to 3 hours walking, with additional stress placed on women by El Niño, including by adding to their existing household and community care giving roles, collecting water, cooking, washing and taking care of the sick and children.

Drought has increased the likelihood of poor hygiene practices, and the risk of infectious and waterborne disease outbreaks, in locations already battling cholera outbreaks linked to poor WASH service delivery. Limited access to water affects menstrual hygiene and management, negatively impacting the health, well-being and dignity of women and girls. The current cholera outbreak in Zambia, which started in December 2024, is still active in more than 09 districts with 347 cumulative cases and 09 deaths having been reported by March 17th 2024. Sanitation and hygiene in rural Zambia have declined, with access to sanitation dropping by 4% to 15%, and only 6% of households having handwashing stations at toilets. Research shows that improper management of non-segregated medical waste in facilities contributes to the spread of infectious and respiratory diseases, gastrointestinal issues, and injuries. These factors compromise health, increase disease burden, exacerbate existing health system challenges, such as poor quality of care, lack of essential medicines and supplies and impede access to essential, lifesaving sexual and reproductive health services.

Affected populations face growing protection, child protection, SGBV, mental health and psychological risks, including increased displacement, breakdowns in family and community support systems, child separation, and the escalation of negative coping strategies. Existing discrimination and increasing care responsibilities leaves women and girls particularly vulnerable. This risk is identified in the UNOCHA Zambia appeal, along with increased child marriage, SGBV and neglect, and rural-to-urban family migration. The Zambia Food Security Cluster Assessment report found that the drought has contributed to an increase in intimate partner violence (IPV) attributed to the inability to provide food, a likely increase in early marriage and survival sex. This is likely to worsen. Many children are joining their parents in casual work and business to help buy food. The Rapid Needs Assessement also found that affected communities are susceptible to forced migration to urban areas and neighboring countries in search of work, leading to increased protection risks for women and children, including exploitative labour, child labour, trafficking, child and forced marriages, teenage pregnancies, transactional sex, and family abandonment as men migrate.

The impact of food insecurity on access to essential, lifesaving SRH services can contribute to an increase in maternal mortality and morbidity, sexually transmitted infections, and early and unintended pregnancies. In Zambia, the Food Security Assessment Report describes fears school dropout will rise if the food security situation continues to worsen.

B) The Project:

Oxfam in Zambia, with support from Global Affairs Canada, through Oxfam Canada, and working in partnership with two local implementing partners Keepers Zambia and Women for Change, proposed a multi-country emergency program to address the growing WASH, protection, and food security needs of drought-affected communities over 18 months. This integrated humanitarian intervention aims to:

Reduce suffering, maintain dignity, and save lives among El Niño-affected populations, using a multi-sectoral, gender-responsive approach that addresses the needs of women, girls, persons living with disabilities, the elderly, and female- and child-headed households.

The proposed intervention aligns with the CERF Lifesaving Criteria and identifies gaps from clusters, relevant Government, and UN Flash Appeals. All targeted communities are classified as IPC levels 3+ and 4+, facing drought and near-famine conditions. Oxfam plans to reach approximately 59,600 people (18,595 women, 12,396 girls, 17,166 men and 11,443 boys).

The objective of this baseline study is to collect data on the current food security, WASH, and protection situation among the target population, to establish a benchmark for measuring the impact of the drought response intervention.

Scope of Work The survey will cover the following Provinces and Districts in Zambia

Southern Province

Gwembe District

Namwala District

Sinazongwe District

Western Province

Kalabo District

Kaoma District

Mongu District

Objectives of the Baseline Survey

1. To establish baseline values for project indicators, especially outcome-level indicators.

2. To assess the initial status of key thematic areas: water, sanitation, hygiene (WASH), protection (including SGBV risk mitigation), and food security.
3. To assess community vulnerabilities, capacities, and coping mechanisms to validate project assumptions.
4. To gather sex-, age (Women, Men, Girls, Boys)-, and disability-disaggregated data for informed programming and targeted interventions.
5. To assess community vulnerabilities, capacities, and coping mechanisms to validate project assumptions.
6. To generate data for comparative analysis during endline evaluations.
7. To identify protection concerns and risks faced by the target population, particularly vulnerable groups such as women, children, and the elderly.
8. To collect data on the current coping mechanisms and strategies used by the target population to address food insecurity, WASH, and protection challenges.
9. Provide key recommendations to guide the project implementation

Methodology:

The baseline study will employ a mixed-methods approach, combining both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods. Specifically:

• Quantitative Survey: Household surveys to capture numerical data on water access, food security, hygiene practices, and protection risks.
• Qualitative Approaches: FGDs, KIIs with local authorities, community leaders, and beneficiaries.
• Desk Review: Analysis of existing reports, secondary data sources, and government statistics.
• Sampling Strategy: Representative sampling ensuring age, gender and disability inclusion.
• Data Collection Methods: Digital data collection tools (e.g., SurveyCTO, Kobo Toolbox).
• Data Quality Control: Spot checks, back-checking, and triangulation to ensure reliability.

Data Analysis:

The collected data will be analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, as well as thematic analysis for the qualitative data. The analysis will focus on identifying trends, patterns, and correlations between variables, as well as highlighting key findings and recommendations.

Deliverables:

The consultant/team will deliver the following:

Key Deliverables The consultant/team will be responsible for delivering:

1. Inception Report (including survey methodology, sampling strategy, tools, and work plan).
2. Data Collection Tools (structured and semi-structured questionnaires, focus group discussion (FGD) guides, key informant interview (KII) checklists).
3. Training and Pilot Testing Report (outlining enumerator training and testing of survey tools).
4. Data Collection and Quality Assurance Report.
5. Baseline Survey Report (including analysis of all key indicators, disaggregated data, and alignment with project outcome indicators).
6. Presentation of Key Findings to Oxfam and stakeholders.
7. Final Clean Dataset (in Excel/SPSS format with proper coding and documentation).

 

Key Indicators to be Measured

• WASH Indicators:
  • Percentage of households with access to safe drinking water.
  • Percentage of households practising water treatment.
  • Proportion of functional WASH committees with trained members.
  • Proportion of households with access to usable toilets
  • Proportion of households with hand washing facilities
  • Proportion of households with access to safe disposal of waste
• Food Security Indicators:
  • Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS).
  • Percentage of households receiving and utilizing cash/voucher assistance.
  • Percentage of households adopting negative coping strategies.
• Protection Indicators:
  • Percentage of community members aware of SGBV risks and reporting mechanisms.
  • Number of survivors accessing SGBV referral services.
  • Proportion of trained community protection focal points active in their roles.
  • Proportion of Women, Girls and Boys who have experienced SGBV in the last 90 days.

Timeline:

The baseline study is expected to be completed within 5 weeks. The following milestones are expected:

1. Inception Report: 10^th April 2025
2. Data Collection: 14^th-26^th April 2025
3. Data Analysis and Report Writing: 28^th April – 2^nd May 2025
4. Draft Report Submission 5^th May 2025
5. Final Report Submission: 9^th May 2025

Requirements:

The consultant/team should have:

1. Experience in conducting baseline studies and evaluations in food security, WASH, and protection programming.
2. Strong knowledge of quantitative and qualitative research methods.
3. Familiarity with the local context and language(s).
4. Excellent analytical and report-writing skills.

Academic Credentials:

1. The lead consultant MUST possess a master’s qualification or higher in Agricultural Economics, or Development Studies (Agriculture and Rural Development), Disaster Management, Economics, Gender Studies or any other related subject.
2. More than 10 years experience in conducting such baseline or other studies of similar magnitude and scope

Other:

3. A team with credible and traceable referees, experience in data collection using various techniques and methodologies, with exceptional abilities to engage communities and other relevant stakeholders
4. Disciplined and willing to adhere to Oxfam ways of working and conducting for the entire period of the survey.
5. Willingness and capacity to travel extensively to target districts and work long hours to beat the deadline.

Evaluation Criteria Proposals will be assessed based on:

• Technical soundness (40%)
• Experience and qualifications (30%)
• Financial proposal (20%)
• Timeliness and feasibility (10%)

 

Required:

1. Interested and qualified consultants to submit their EXPRESSION OF INTEREST to conduct the study
2. Technical proposal (approach, methodology, work plan, and team composition).
3. Financial proposal (budget breakdown, including professional fees and logistics).
4. Organizational/individual profile with relevant experience.

1. Provide proof/evidence of having conducted a similar study within the last 3 years

6. A timeline or work plan for the exercise

 

Oxfam is committed to safeguarding and promoting the welfare of children, young people, and adults, and expects all staff and volunteers to share this commitment. We will do everything possible to ensure that only those that are suitable to work

Submission Timeline: Friday 28^th March 2025. Time: 17:00HRS CAT

 

Application process

Proposals should be no longer than eight (8) pages and include both technical details (methodology and process) and financial information (number of days, daily rates, and number of hours projected for each deliverable). Include contact information for two NGOs or organizations as references. Please submit an example of prior work along with the proposal.

Please submit your application to [email protected].  In your application, please ensure that you address your suitability towards the outlined selection criteria. Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted.