Oxfam
TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR CONSULTANT ENGAGEMENT ON EVALUATING FISCAL STRATEGIES: THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN DEBT INFLUENCE AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN MALAWI, ZAMBIA, ZIMBABWE, AND MOZAMBIQUE
INTRODUCTION
Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique are at a critical juncture, grappling with high debt levels while striving to meet developmental goals. As of June 2024, Malawi’s public debt stock reached 81.0% of the fiscalized GDP for the year 2024/25. Zambia’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 77.8% in 2024, reflecting fiscal management challenges amid development efforts. Zimbabwe’s total debt increased to 70.58% of GDP in 2024, with significant portions owed to bilateral and multilateral creditors. Meanwhile, Mozambique’s public debt is projected to be 92.4% of GDP in 2024, despite economic growth, with domestic debt rising sharply. These countries face tough choices between debt repayment and essential public investments. Recent external shocks have exacerbated these challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic severely contracted economies and disrupted current account balances. Cyclone Freddy caused widespread destruction and loss of life, especially in Malawi, amidst a worsening cholera outbreak. The El Niño phenomenon has triggered severe droughts and floods throughout the Southern African region, severely impacting agricultural production. These conditions have led Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe to declare states of disaster, resulting in acute food shortages, rising commodity prices, and additional pressure on already overstretched resources.
In this context, Oxfam seeks to engage experienced, country-based consultants from Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. These consultants will conduct in-depth, country-specific studies to examine how external shocks affect the delicate balance between debt servicing and the critical need for increased public sector investments. The studies will also explore the complex trade-offs and policy decisions these countries face, which threaten their financial stability, developmental progress, and efforts to promote citizen equality. Additionally, the research will delve into the political economy that underpins decision-making processes regarding these crucial issues.
MAIN OBJECTIVE
The main objective of the study is to assess the fiscal strategies of Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique by examining how debt levels, the domestic political economy, and negotiations with the IMF influence public investment and debt restructuring decisions, and their subsequent impact on economic stability, growth, and progress towards the SDGs.
Specifically, the study will:
- Undertake a comprehensive review of debt data, budget allocations, and investment trends in key sectors of health, education, social protection, agriculture, and infrastructure.
- Analyze the impact of climate shocks on debt management and public spending priorities.
- Evaluate the allocation and efficiency of public investments in key sectors of health, education, social protection, agriculture, and infrastructure compared to national plans to meet the Sustainable Development Goals.
- Assess the political economy drivers behind fiscal policy decisions, including agreements with the IMF.
- Identify best practices and lessons from the comparative analysis of the four countries.
SCOPE OF WORK
Oxfam is looking for one consultant in each country (Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe) to:
- Conduct quantitative analysis of debt data, budget allocations, and investment trends in each of the four countries for the last five years (2020- 2024)
- Perform qualitative case studies and interviews with policymakers, financial experts, and community leaders.
- Produce a country analysis report with clear recommendations.
- Develop a four-page country specific policy brief with recommendations.
- Synthesize findings from the four countries into a comparative analysis report. (This will be undertaken by one of the four consultants).
- Facilitate country dissemination workshops and a leadership roundtable discussion.
METHODOLOGY
The study will utilize a mixed-methods approach, including:
- Quantitative analysis of debt data, budget allocations, and investment trends.
- Qualitative case studies and interviews with key stakeholders.
- Comparative analysis across the four countries to identify best practices and shared challenges.
DELIVERABLES
Each consultant is expected to deliver:
- Detailed assessment design and implementation plan agreed with Oxfam.
- Data collection tools
- Draft country analysis study report for Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe or Mozambique
- Final country analysis study report for Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, or Zimbabwe with recommendations. The report should be no more than 50 pages inclusive of
an executive summary which should be no more than 4 pages. Details of the other findings to be attached as annexes.
- (For one consultant only,) a synthesized comparative country analysis report of the four countries done by the consultant engaged to do this additional work. The report should be no more than 60 pages inclusive of an executive summary which should be no more than 4 pages. Details of the other findings to be attached as annexes.
- Data set for quantitative data.
- A four-page policy brief with recommendations for each country.
- Country dissemination workshop in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, or Zimbabwe.
- A leadership roundtable discussion of the country reports.
- PowerPoint presentation of the main findings of the county study report (and synthesized report for the consultant engaged to do this additional work).
QUALIFICATIONS
- Advanced degree in Economics, Finance, Public Policy, or a related field.
- Specialized training in fiscal policy, debt management, or development economics.
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
- Extensive experience in conducting economic and fiscal policy research.
- Proven track record of working with international financial institutions (e.g., IMF, World Bank) or development organizations.
- Experience in the Southern African region and familiarity with the political context of Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, or Mozambique.
TECHNICAL SKILLS
- Proficiency in quantitative and qualitative research methods.
- Strong analytical skills, particularly in debt sustainability analysis and public investment evaluation.
- Familiarity with the IMF and World Bank’s Debt Sustainability Framework for LowIncome Countries (LIC-DSF).
COMMUNICATION AND REPORTING
- Excellent written and verbal communication skills in English.
- Ability to produce clear, concise, and comprehensive reports and policy briefs.
- Experience in presenting findings to diverse audiences, including policymakers, financial experts, and community leaders.
INTERPERSONAL SKILLS
- Strong networking and collaboration skills.
- Ability to work effectively with stakeholders from various sectors, including government, academia, and civil society.
- Cultural sensitivity and understanding of the political economy in the Southern African region.
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
- Demonstrated ability to manage complex research projects within specified timelines and budgets.
- Experience in coordinating multi-country studies and synthesizing findings into comparative analyses.
TIMELINE
The study is allocated 21 man days and Oxfam expects the consultant to complete the assignment and submit the draft report by 28th February 2025. Failure to adhere to timelines is a violation of a contract and may lead to sanctions as guided by Oxfam policy on contracts.
REPORTING
The consultant(s) will report directly to the Justice Economies Program and Policy Manager who will serve as the primary point of contact throughout the consultancy period.
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
All intellectual property rights, including the final report and any related materials, will be transferred to Oxfam upon completion of the consultancy.
CONFIDENTIALITY
The consultant(s) shall maintain the confidentiality of all data, information, and discussions related to the consultancy and ensure the security of any data collected during the review.
ETHICS AND SAFEGUARDING
Oxfam has a zero-tolerance policy towards inaction against sexual harassment, exploitation, and abuse. Oxfam’s ethics for safeguarding will be emphasized and remain mandatory throughout the process of the undertaking of the study. Engagements and support will aim to create and maintain safe, equitable, and inclusive culture where all those who work for and with Oxfam as well as those in the communities where Oxfam operates are treated with dignity and their rights and voices are heard and respected.
Selected consultants will be expected to read, sign, and adhere to the Oxfam Code of Conduct for no Oxfam staff and follow Oxfam’s Ethical Content Guidelines.
EVALUATION AND SELECTION
The selection of the consultant(s) will be based on their qualifications, relevant experience, proposed methodology, and budget.
APPLICATION PROCESS
Interested consultant (s) should submit technical and financial proposal (not more than 20 pages excluding annexes. Failure to adhere to this may lead to disqualification), detailing how they will undertake the assignment. Attach up-to-date CVs of the core team as annexes. Proposals should be submitted to the address below in electronic form ONLY and must be clearly indicated “CONSULTANCY ENGAGEMENT – EVALUATING FISCAL STRATEGIES: THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN DEBT INFLUENCE AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN MALAWI, ZAMBIA, ZIMBABWE, AND MOZAMBIQUE” by 17:00 hours CAT time on Friday 18 October, 2024.
All correspondence for the consultancy should be addressed to:
Just Economies Program and Policy Manager
OXFAM in Malawi
Green Heritage Building (2nd Floor), Area 13, City Centre.
P/Bag B331
Lilongwe
Malawi
Email: [email protected]
To apply for this job email your details to procurement.malawi@oxfam.org.uk
